After Indus, India to turn off Ravi water tap. Will this leave Pakistan parched this summer?

The summer is almost here, and it seems that it’s going to be a cruel, cruel summer for Pakistan. The country’s water troubles are set to worsen as India is about to halt the flow of surplus water from the Ravi River to Pakistan.

India’s neighbouring country was already facing troubles as a result of the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty following the Pahalgam terror attack last year, and now, the crisis is set to further deepen with India’s latest move.

So, what’s going on? How will reduced Ravi water flow impact Pakistan? We have the answers for you.

The Shahpur Kandi dam nears completion

About three decades after the foundation stone for the Shahpur Kandi barrage was laid, the project on the Ravi river, located on the Punjab-Jammu and Kashmir border, is nearing completion.

The Shahpur Kandi dam was first envisaged in 1979, and former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi laid the foundation stone in 1982. However, construction was halted owing to internal struggles between the Punjab and Jammu-Kashmir governments. Finally, in 2008, the construction of the dam was declared a national project.

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The Shahpur Kandi Dam on the Ravi River in Punjab, India, is nearing completion and is expected to be operational by 1st September 2024. This vital national project being executed by the Punjab Irrigation Department will significantly enhance electricity generation and irrigation… pic.twitter.com/T5THIRNV4h

— KBS Sidhu, ex-IAS 🇮🇳 (@kbssidhu1961) June 24, 2024

The cost of this project is Rs 3,394.49 crore, of which Punjab is contributing Rs 2,694.02 crore, while the rest is being funded by the Government of India. The dam stands 55.5 metres high and includes a 7.7 km-long hydel channel.

On Monday (February 16), Jammu-Kashmir minister Javed Ahmed Rana announced that the Shahpur Kandi dam would be completed by March 31, and thus, excess water from the Ravi river will stop flowing to Pakistan.

“Yes, excess water (from Ravi river) to Pakistan will be stopped. It has to be stopped,” noted Rana, adding that the project is critical for drought-hit Kathua and Samba districts. “Kathua and Samba districts are drought-hit areas; and this project, which is our priority, is being constructed for the Kandi area.”

Once completed, the dam is expected to deliver huge gains to India. The Punjab government projects that the dam will allow farmers to irrigate an additional 91,856 acres of farmland, particularly through extensive irrigation of the Upper Bari River in Rajasthan. Reports added that the Shahpur Kandi dam will add 12,355 acres of agricultural land to Punjab and 79,501 to J-K. Moreover, the dam will also generate 206 megawatts of electricity for India’s power grid.

Apart from agricultural and power benefits, the Shahpur Kandi dam will also provide a huge boost in promoting water sports across north India.

Shahpur Kandi Dam’s impact on Pakistan

The completion of the Shahpur Kandi dam will have a significant impact on Pakistan. That’s because until now, surplus waters from the Ravi flow unused through Madhopur into Pakistan. Speaking on the same, Rana noted that the dam would curb “such wastage”.

It has been reported that Lahore, one of Pakistan’s key cities, is heavily dependent on the water from the Ravi river. The river is crucial to the groundwater supplies of Lahore. Moreover, Lahore-based initiatives such as the Ravi Urban Development Authority (RUDA), which seeks to revitalise the Ravi and foster urban development along its banks, could suffer setbacks.

As per a report by South Asian Voices, an online policy platform for strategic analysis on South Asia, if India blocks all water from Ravi to flow in Pakistan, Lahore risks a situation similar to Cape Town in South Africa, where shortages force long queues to access potable water.

It could also lead to public ire rising — a concern for the Pakistani government.

India squeezes Pakistan’s water supply

The news of the Shahpur Kandi dam comes after India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan last year following the Pahalgam terror attack in which 26 people died.

This came as a huge blow to Pakistan, as nearly 80-90 per cent of Pakistan’s agriculture depends on the Indus River system. Agriculture is important for Pakistan, as it accounts for 25 per cent of the country’s GDP. Additionally, major cities such as Lahore and Multan also rely heavily on the Indus system for urban water supply.

For many, India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty felt like war. As Khalid Khokhar, president of the Farmers’ Association, told The Guardian earlier, “Water is our life. We can’t compromise on it. The water level is already low because of less rain and we are already very worried. There should be no politics on water. It is our lifeline.”

For the unaware, the Indus Waters Treaty gave Pakistan rights over the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, while India had control over the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej.

Since the suspension of the treaty, which was initially signed in 1960, India has been pushing forward with many hydroelectric projects such as the Sawalkote, Ratle, Bursar, Pakal Dul, Kwar, Kiru, and Kirthai I and II.

Unsurprisingly, Pakistan has termed India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty as a water war and has raised the matter at several international platforms. For instance, in January, Pakistan’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Asim Iftikhar Ahmad, stated that India’s move to suspend the treaty wasn’t “merely a bilateral concern” but a “test case for the international system”. If a binding treaty governing shared natural resources could be set aside unilaterally, he warned, then no agreement anywhere is safe from politics.

Islamabad has also approached the Court of Arbitration in The Hague over what it called “weaponisation of water”, but India has rejected the legitimacy of the proceedings.

However, New Delhi remains firm in its stance — blood and water cannot be allowed to flow together.

With inputs from agencies