Will it be Vasundhara Raje again? Who will be Rajasthan CM as BJP is set for a win?

The counting of votes for Rajasthan Assembly Elections is currently underway. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress have been the dominant parties in the desert state every five years since 1993. With 114 seats, the BJP feels more confident about winning the polls in Rajasthan. Speculation about the potential next chief minister is rife in the party circles, since it has fielded many Lok Sabha MPs this election. Here are possible choices. [caption id=“attachment_13459502” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] BJP workers and supporters celebrate the party’s lead in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh during counting of votes, in Varanasi. PTI[/caption] Vasundhara Raje The former two-time CM Vasundhara Raje continues to the BJP’s most popular face in the state. However, political experts believe there is little chance she will hold the position a third time if the party wins a clear majority in the 200-member Assembly. If this happens, the high command won’t be forced to play along with Raje, considering its tense relationship with her. On the other hand, the party might rely on her leadership to unite its forces if it wins a razor-thin majority in the close race. Even in this scenario, experts believe the leadership is confident about tackling Raje, having managed to run the show in the state without completely isolating her and her supporters. According to Indian Express sources, granting Raje a ticket to Jhalrapatan was a strategy to satisfy her and her supporters while ensuring they remained confined to their constituency, therefore decreasing the likelihood of stirring troubles. This move also signifies that the party feels this “pragmatic approach” is necessary, considering senior leaders been instructed to provide Raje the respect she deserves but not to take orders from her. [caption id=“attachment_13459532” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Raje differs from her other party members as she is unwilling to change or give in to changing circumstances.. PTI[/caption] If the BJP wins about 90 of the 199 seats, Raje might also be in a position to tell the party that installing her as CM is the only choice. She may contend this with the support of loyal independent MLAs, which could lead to the establishment of a government. Nonetheless, many still view Raje as a leader who defied expectations, lived a public and private life on her own terms, and faced a patriarchal system, as per India Today. She differs from her other party members as she is unwilling to change or give in to changing circumstances. Thus, it remains to be seen how likely is it that the BJP’s central leadership will give in to her demands or stick to their firm stance. Other possible choices Experts believe Union Jal Shakti Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat might be the top pick, as he is trusted by both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah. Shekhawat, who rose through the party levels, has overseen several key initiatives like the Jal Jeevan Mission and party’s electioneering in Punjab. However, the BJP’s high command may also not consider him as the potential candidate due to his link to the alleged Sanjivani Credit Cooperative Society scam in Rajasthan. The party might also not want to pick another leader from the upper caste, as it already seen in UP (Yogi Adityanath) and  Uttarakhand (Pushkar Singh Dhami). [caption id=“attachment_13459542” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Shekhawat, who rose through the party levels, has overseen several key initiatives like the Jal Jeevan Mission and party’s electioneering in Punjab. PTI[/caption] BJP Leader of Opposition Rajendra Singh Rathore and former Union minister Rajyavardhan Rathore, could also find the Rajput factor going against them. In light of the Opposition’s campaign, Mahant Balaknath, the sitting BJP MP from Alwar who is running for the Tijara constituency, has emerged as the dark horse if the OBC factor outweighs other castes. Additionally, he is seen as someone who resembles UP CM Adityanath, both of them belong to religious sect, the Naths. He even brands himself as “Rajasthan’s Yogi.” If the BJP continues with its agenda of promoting Hindutva ideology like the one in UP, Balaknath would be a good choice. Moreover, Balaknath’s single status could work in his favour considering he would “commit his whole life to governance, just like Adityanath.” One factor that could go against him is his lack of experience, unlike Adityanath, who served five terms as a Lok Sabha MP prior to becoming a chief minister. Several other names that could take the chief ministerial post include Jaipur royal Diya Kumari who is contesting from Vidyadhar Nagar, Union ministers Bhupender Yadav and Ashwini Vaishnaw and Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla. Rajasthan Assembly elections 2023 The results for the state assembly elections this year, coming ahead of the 2024 general elections, are seen as semi-final polls. Most of the exit polls on 30 November predicted a close contest between the Congress and the BJP in Rajasthan Assembly polls this year. However, a decisive victory in favour of the saffron party will ease things for the party’s top leadership, especially after recent losses in Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh. The BJP won 24 of Rajasthan’s 25 Lok Sabha seats in the 2019 general elections, with its ally obtaining the remaining seat. A victory here will bolster the BJP’s standing in the northern Vindhyas, as opposed to its essentially nonexistent standing in the southern region following the defeat in Karnataka earlier this year. It would also be major loss for the Congress and Ashok Gehlot, who has been the CM for three times.