Vantage | Is Israel risking a new war in Lebanon?

Beyond the Red Sea, there is danger on land as well; the border between Israel and Lebanon is flaring up. On Tuesday, Israel launched a massive attack; the target was Hezbollah. Some 16 airstrikes pounded Lebanon. The strikes focused on Suluki Valley, a district in the southern part of the country. Israel says it is also a Hezbollah hideout. We don’t know about casualties yet, but the announcement itself is important. Israel never admits special operations, especially those carried out across the border, but this time it did. It has also released footage. So Israel launched a cross-border attack and made a rare announcement about it. Is Israel trying to send a message to Hezbollah? Hezbollah is a Shia armed group in Lebanon. It works closely with Iran. It also support Hamas in Gaza. So since October, it have clashed repeatedly with Israel, sometimes exchanging gunfire. Sometimes, launching rockets, one such rocket hit an Israeli home on Sunday. A mother and son were killed. Before that, Hezbollah attacked an Israeli army base. It was a revenge attack. Israel had taken out key leaders inside Lebanon, like Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut and Hezbollah commander Wissam Tawil. Both men were killed in airstrikes. It is a tit-for-tat situation. Israel strikes Lebanon, in response, Hezbollah strikes Israel. But what if it escalates? What if it leads to another war? It’s not unprecedented. Hezbollah and Israel fought a war in 2006, and Israel couldn’t win. It is something Hezbollah keeps talking about. It claims to be the first Arab army to beat Israel. Same with weapons; Hezbollah is not like Hamas. The former is much more powerful and prepared. Reports say it has more than 100 thousand fighters. They are well-trained and battle-ready. On the other side, Israel can mobilise up to 600,000 soldiers. On paper, that is a lot more, but if war breaks out, Israel will be fighting on two fronts—in Gaza and in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Hezbollah can focus everything on just one front, and it has some 100 thousand rockets, precision bombs, anti-tank, anti-ship, anti-aircraft missiles, and finally, drones. Most of these weapons come from Iran. Some of them are home-made. So Hezbollah has the means to wage a war. But will it actually do it? Well, Lebanon’s economy can’t handle it. Plus, the Lebanese people aren’t eager. Which is why Hezbollah has been half-hearted; it has lost 130 fighters since October. Yet, the conflict has not escalated. It has let other groups, like Houthis, do the damage. But if push comes to shove, Hezbollah is ready.

“For 99 days, we have been ready for war. We do not fear it, we’re not afraid of it and we will not hesitate when it comes to it. We will accept it. As I said, we will fight in it without limitations or controls,” said Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah leader. So will Israel shove? Well, the signs are not good. Israeli politicians have talked about pushing Hezbollah away from the border. Of course, it won’t pull back voluntarily. So the end result could be war. The US officials are worried about this possibility. It believes Benjamin Netanyahu could attack Lebanon. It would extend his time in office. It would also draw the US into its fold. It sounds like a stretch, but Israeli actions make it a real possibility. Israel has killed 130 Hezbollah fighters, taken out a senior commander, and bombed 16 locations. At one point, Hezbollah may decide that enough is enough and it is time to escalate. So Israel is currently playing with fire. It can easily manage one front with Gaza. But can it manage another front with Lebanon? A new secret assessment from the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) found that it will be difficult for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to succeed because its military assets and resources would be spread too thin given the conflict in Gaza, according to two people familiar with those findings. The US intelligence denied this. Washington thinks Israel would struggle to win against Hezbollah. So calmer heads need to prevail. Israel’s focus should be on wrapping up the war in Gaza and not starting a new one in Lebanon. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Read all the  Latest News,  Trending News,  Cricket News,  Bollywood News, India News and  Entertainment News here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.