 "PM Modi, Xi Jinping bilateral shortly: The significance of India-China resetting ties")
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping for a bilateral meeting today (August 31). This comes before the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in the port city of Tianjin kicks off.
Modi was in Japan for a two-day trip, where he met Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. The two leaders held bilateral talks and discussed business, Japanese investment in India, and country-to-country cooperation.
The SCO summit will be held from August 31 to September 1.
Modi’s trips to the Asian countries come in the backdrop of rising tensions between India and the United States after President Donald Trump’s 50 per cent tariffs took effect. This development came after trade talks with Washington stalled. Modi previously visited China in 2018, also to attend the SCO summit.
But what does Modi’s visit to the SCO summit mean for ties between India and China?
Let’s take a closer look:
Symbolic thaw
Modi’s trip is a symbol of the ties between the two countries further thawing. China has expressed its anticipation for Modi’s visit. Foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun had said, “China welcomes Prime Minister Modi to China for the SCO Tianjin Summit”.
Jiakun said the meeting would be an example of ‘solidarity and friendship’. He said the SCO would be entering “a new stage of high-quality development featuring greater solidarity, coordination, dynamism, and productiveness.”
Modi and Xi last during the Brics summit in Russia’s Kazan in 2024, which gave fresh impetus towards the softening of ties. India has now begun issuing visas to Chinese citizens. Meanwhile, the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra has also resumed as a show of good faith. The countries are also looking to resume direct flights, which had been paused during the Covid pandemic and then in the aftermath of the Galvan Valley clash, from this September. A number of top Indian officials, including Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and NSA Ajit Doval, have recently visited China.
Progress on the border
The meeting between Modi and Xi could also spur progress on the border talks. The relationship between India and China hit a nadir in the aftermath of the Galvan Valley clashes in 2020. The face-off ended after an agreement was finalised in October to disengage in Demchok and Depsang. India and China have tried to mend their relationship over the past few years.
After Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi recently visited India, the Ministry of External Affairs released a statement outlining how this can be done. The MEA said this could be done by resolving the smaller issues like identifying areas along the undemarcated border, and leave the more difficult conversations for later.
The two men are likely to discuss further de-escalation at the Line of Actual Control. While no one expects the border issue to be solved, steps can be taken in the right direction to build trust.
Strategic autonomy
Modi’s SCO trip also reemphasises India’s strategic autonomy on the world stage. India has already displayed this by refusing to take sides between Russia and the US-led West over the Ukraine war – much to the displeasure of the United States. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has repeatedly emphasised the need for dialogue and diplomacy as a way to make peace, has positioned himself as someone who could act as a bridge between both sides.
The United States and the West have, for a long time, attempted to position India as a counterweight to China. This has led to an emphasis on the Quad, comprising America, India, Australia, and Japan, which many view as an Asian version of Nato.
However, with the US-India relationship coming under strain as a result of Trump’s tariff s, India has made it clear that it will do whatever it can to uphold the national interest and its strategic interests, including getting closer to Russia and a possible rapprochement with China. India, China, and Russia, incidentally, are also part of the Brics grouping, which has aroused Trump’s ire.
The US president has threatened to levy tariffs on the Brics nations if they support a new currency that challenges the dollar’s hegemony or an alternative to the US dollar.
Beijing has come out in favour of New Delhi on Trump’s tariffs . Ambassador Xu Feihong was quoted as saying that compromise on trade issues only “emboldens the bully.”
“Give the bully an inch, he will take a mile,” Xu wrote on X.
“China firmly opposes the tariff move” and “will firmly stand with India to uphold the multilateral trading system with the World Trade Organisation (WTO) at its core”, Xu added.
This isn’t the only time China has backed India on tariffs.
In April, after Trump announced his ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs, spokesperson Yu Jing of the Embassy of India took to X to write, “China-India economic and trade relationship is based on complementarity and mutual benefit. Facing the US abuse of tariffs… the two largest developing countries should stand together to overcome the difficulties".
“Trade and tariff wars have no winners. All countries should uphold the principles of extensive consultation, practice true multilateralism, and jointly oppose all forms of unilateralism and protectionism.”
“China’s opposition to the abuse of tariffs is consistent and clear,” added Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun in April.
Indian officials have also spoken about Delhi wanting to “diversify its partnerships”.
India cannot “afford to appear as though it is giving in to US pressure on oil imports, or anything else that could be construed as a capitulation – and public anger is high”, an unnamed official told The Guardian.
Economy and trade
Modi and Xi’s meeting could also see India and China can also increase their cooperation when it comes to their economies and on trade.
While New Delhi has tried to position its manufacturing strategy as a “China plus one” as companies look to diversify the supply chains in the aftermath of the pandemic, results have been somewhat mixed – though India has passed China as the top smartphone supplier to the US in the second quarter of FY25.
Huge Indian firms are said to be pursuing tie-ups with Chinese companies. India has banned several Chinese businesses and apps such as TikTok.
China could also be useful when it comes to India meeting its electric vehicle target by 2030. The Indian government has already said that it wants EVs to comprise six per cent of all new cars sold by that year. China, of course, could play an invaluable part in that.
India has long been frustrated by its widening trade deficit with China, which stood at $99.2 billion in the FY 2024-2025.
That number was at $85 billion in FY 2023-2024.
India’s imports from China hit an all-time high of $113.45 billion this year.
“Our trade deficit concerns are two-pronged. One is the actual size of the deficit. Two is the fact that the imbalance has continuously been widening year after year,” the Indian embassy in China told CNBC. “We continue to engage the Chinese side for addressing market access issues.”
India is also considering easing investment rules that put greater scrutiny on Chinese companies, while Beijing recently agreed to lift curbs on exports of fertilisers, rare earth minerals and tunnel boring machines to India.
What do experts say?
Experts say that the summit between Modi and Xi is likely to be viewed as a reset for India-China even if there are no major developments. They say that often perception can be reality.
Alyssa Ayres, adjunct senior fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote for the website, “They may very well term it a reset. I think even if they don’t, it looks like the global strategic affairs watchers are going to be terming this a reset, which may be as important to perceptions”.
Ayres said it will be interesting to see if India and China increase cooperation on the global stage in the future.
“That will be a really interesting thing to gauge from this summit. I will be watching for what they identify and publicly agree upon as their next outcomes,” she added.
“Will they pick up shared concerns about global governance and the Global South? This has historically been an area of some cooperation between China and India, even when they have some pretty significant bilateral differences, and even when they also compete for influence. I would bet that we’ll see some outcomes pointing to deeper multilateral and/or global cooperation in some manner resulting from this summit.”
Manoj Kewalramani, the head of Indo-Pacific studies at the Takshashila Institution in Bengaluru, told The Guardian, “An effort is underway to see if India and China can reach some sort of new equilibrium.“ Both recognise that the world order is in flux. Neither is likely to decisively manage all the frictions, but there’s at least a process of trying to grow the relationship.”
“Historical mistrust will remain,” he added. “But if Delhi and Beijing can create a measure of stability and predictability, without expecting structural breakthroughs, there are practical gains to be had”.
Others are a little more sceptical.
“The suspicion of China runs deep in India,” Amit Bhandari, senior fellow, energy, investments and connectivity, at think-tank Gateway House, told CNBC. “It is unlikely that a Chinese partnership will become like the one India has with Russia or the US”.
With inputs from agencies
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