Why all eyes are on Vladimir Putin's rare visit to UAE and Saudi Arabia

Kyrgyzstan, China, Kazakhstan, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. What do these countries have in common? They are the only nations that Russian president Vladimir Putin has made a visit to this year.

The Russian strongman is making his way to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia today, at a time when there’s an international warrant issued against him by the International Criminal Court (ICC) amid the ongoing war against Ukraine.

After his visit to both countries, Putin is reportedly going to host Iran’s president Ebrahim Raisi in Moscow on Thursday.

As Putin makes his way, we take a closer look at what’s on his agenda and why these meetings are significant.

Putin’s rare trip to Saudi and UAE

On Tuesday (6 December), the Kremlin had announced that President Vladimir Putin would be travelling to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates the following day for a “working visit”.

Putin will first make his way to UAE, which is currently hosting the global COP28 climate summit in Dubai, and meet with Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Abu Dhabi, and then travel to Saudi Arabia, where he will meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Both countries have been pressured to distance themselves from Russia since its invasion of Ukraine. However, both countries have refused to cave in.

Several senior-level leaders from Russia are accompanying Putin for the visit. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Industry and Trade Minister Denis Manturov are also travelling with Putin. Moreover, billionaire Vagit Alekperov, a Lukoil PJSC shareholder, may also join, according to RIA.

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Importantly, Putin’s visit to the two Gulf nations is only his fifth trip abroad since the ICC issued an arrest warrant for him in March that accused him of responsibility for the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia. He had earlier skipped a BRICS summit in South Africa’s Pretoria over fears that the host nation would be obliged to arrest him. He also had skipped the G20 Summit in New Delhi. However, there are no such fears in UAE or Saudi Arabia, as they are not signatories to the ICC’s founding treaty.

Putin’s agenda for the visits

The Russia leader’s visit to the two countries comes at a very significant time. Last Thursday (30 November), OPEC+ producers, of which Russia is a part of, agreed to voluntary oil output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day in an attempt to boost the market. Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of OPEC+, who pump more than 40 per cent of the world’s oil, had issued a statement summarising countries’ voluntary cut announcements.

When asked if the oil cuts would figure in Putin’s talks, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that discussions on oil market cooperation will be on the agenda of talks, as Moscow cooperates with these countries through OPEC+.

Apart from the oil output, Putin is also expected to discuss the ongoing Israel-Hamas war with Saudi’s crown prince Mohammed bin Salman. Fyodor Lukyanov, head of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, which advises the Kremlin, told Bloomberg that Putin’s visit to the two key Gulf powers is “a clear sign” that Russia is breaking out of its international isolation. Furthermore, the move serves to increase Russia’s West Asia influence.

Reports state that Putin will hold discussions on the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, as a means to reassert Russia’s influence in West Asia. Importantly, Hamas, which has been dubbed as a terrorist group by several Western countries, is on good terms with Russia, often sending delegations to Moscow.

Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s foreign policy aide, told Interfax news agency earlier, “It is inevitable. It would be important for our colleagues to listen to Vladimir Putin’s assessments of how the situation is developing.”

Putin, according to analysts, wants to leverage this relationship and assert himself in the crisis. Analysts added that Putin has little to lose by doing so and much to gain. The Russian leader has earlier suggested that Moscow could play the role of mediator, thanks to its friendly ties with both Israel and the Palestinians, saying that “no one could suspect us of playing up to one party.”

Putin has blamed the US during the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas, adding that Washington held double standards by refusing to condemn Israeli war crimes while accusing Russia of committing crimes in Ukraine.

Some geopolitical pundits observe that Putin will try to use this visit to also deepen the wedge between the US and Saudi Arabia over the ongoing war among other issues. While Saudi has been calling for a ceasefire, Washington has maintained its support for Israel’s operation against Hamas.

Additionally, Saudi Arabia has taken a different route on Iran. While Washington has issued warning to Iran about using proxies against Israel to provoke a large conflict in the area, Riyadh has gone out of its way to engage with Tehran.

It will be interesting to see what results will Vladimir Putin’s talks yield. For now, we are tracking it closely to give you the latest.

With inputs from agencies