 "US-China rivalry and the Global South: A new 'coalition of interests' or the same old G2?")
The second day of the 10th Raisina Dialogue in New Delhi is underway.
Among the day’s pivotal sessions was “Multipolar Disorder: No Takers for a G2,” moderated by Steve Clemons, Editor-At-Large of the National Interest from the United States.
The session addressed the escalating concerns surrounding a world increasingly dominated by Sino-American rivalry and the political shift that has occurred in the West with major changes in Washington.
The panel comprised Saeed Khatibzadeh, President of the Institute for Political and International Studies, Iran; Dino Patti Djalal, Founder of the Foreign Policy Community of Indonesia; Sunjoy Joshi, Chairman of the Observer Research Foundation, India; Nada Al Hajjri, President of the Yemen Information Center; and Almut Möller, Director for European and Global Affairs at the European Policy Centre, Germany.
The importance of strategic autonomy by the Global South was highlighted. Rather than aligning with either major power, these nations are putting more weight on flexible trade partnerships, technology transfers and alternative financing mechanisms.
This approach includes strengthening cross-regional partnerships and South-South cooperation to counterbalance great-power competition.
Global South’s strategic autonomy
Saeed Khatibzadeh, who also serves as the deputy foreign minister of Iran, highlighted Iran’s experience in manoeuvring through geopolitical pressures, highlighting the country’s long history of sanctions and strategic diversification.
“Iran has been sanctioned for more than four decades,” he pointed out. He further stressed that the world was no longer solely defined by US-China rivalry. “There are other countries, other players that are probably equally important. The world is not anymore about the rivalry between the US and China,” he remarked.
Discussing Iran’s strategic approach, Khatibzadeh noted that while Tehran has sought to expand its ties, “Europe has not been ready for any.”
Instead, initiatives like BRICS are emerging as alternatives . “BRICS is the response to this chaotic world. BRICS and other initiatives are the response to the G2 problem.”
He also pointed to recent remarks by US President Donald Trump , stating, “What we are seeing now is the United States trying to change the world order from everywhere, from Denmark, Canada, etc.”
Indonesia’s balancing act
Dino Patti Djalal, also the former Indonesian ambassador to the US, put a spotlight on his countru’s role in maintaining regional stability while navigating great-power tensions.
“With or without the US, we will move on. If the US wants to engage, then we will engage; if they do not, then we move on,” he asserted.
He stressed that nations who are part of the Global South prioritise pragmatism. “That is exactly the strength of many countries in the rest of the world because we are willing to be pragmatic.”
On the shifting global order, he noted, “The strongest ones are the US and Europe because they are well structured, but now it is crumbling because of strained ties.”
Speaking about recent nations joining BRICS , he clarified, “It is not a policy shift; it’s about adding options to our foreign policy.” However, he warned, “What is important is that BRICS does not become a geopolitical organisation because of its economic value.”
India’s ‘moment in the sun’
Sunjoy Joshi provided India’s perspective, discussing its independent approach to global affairs.
He dismissed notions of US disengagement, stating, “The US is not checking out. There is a new sheriff in town, and the new sheriff wants to do things his way.” Joshi stressed that India is well-positioned in the current order: “For India, the advantage for the next 10-15 years is India’s moment in the sun.”
Reflecting on the challenges of a multipolar world, Joshi noted, “A multipolar world is a difficult world. It is difficult to set. The ideas of the G7 will be a problem. But engaging in bilateral relations and talks — whether that will work or not — is the big question.”
He also remarked on global realignments, stating, “Globalisation is not dead. Instead, one head has a hundred. There will of course be a pushback. It has become a coalition of interests.”
Managing major power pressures in West Asia
Nada Al Hajjri provided insights into how West Asian countries are navigating external influences. “The rivalry between the US and China has been detrimental to institutions. The WTO has been rendered ineffective; the ability to solve disputes is no longer a mechanism,” she stated.
Highlighting Oman’s diplomatic approach, she explained, “Oman has maintained an image of mutual respect that adheres to international law and uses cultural diplomacy to deal with the US and China.”
Al Hajjri also remarked on the broader shift in global power dynamics. “The big powers do not care anymore — yes. China wants to keep being considered a developing country, which the US and Europe think is unfair; they want China to comply with specific WTO rules.”
A new reality for Europe
Almut Möller discussed Europe’s response to geopolitical shifts, particularly in light of Russia’s actions and Trump’s cold shoulder. “Europe is coming together decisively to respond to Russia’s war of aggression,” she stated, highlighting the urgency of reinforcing security.
“The Europeans have to invest fast to make their citizens safer. We see an urgency on every single conversation that we have. It is an all-hands-on-deck moment.”
While acknowledging divisions within Europe, she cautioned against overstating them. “There are divisions in Europe, but let’s not overemphasise those. Things will fall into place.” Regarding countries reluctant to align with broader European efforts, she warned, “History is not on their side.”
A ’new coalition of interests'?
Regional alliances have become instrumental in shaping countries’ responses to the intensifying Sino-American rivalry. Organisations have sought to maintain unity and neutrality, though internal divisions have emerged due to external pressures.
The strategic competition between the US and China has, at times, compelled nations in the Global South to make “either-or” choices, challenging the bloc’s cohesion.
The jostling between these two great powers has significant implications for the future of multilateralism and international institutions. The contrasting economic visions and governance models offered by the US and China reflect an ideological dimension to their rivalry, reminiscent of past geopolitical tensions.
Some nations, particularly in the Global South, are pursuing strategic nonalignment, reminiscent of the Non-Aligned Movement, to maintain autonomy amidst Sino-US and US-Russia rivalries.
Raisina Dialogue is a premier conference on geopolitics and geo-economics hosted by the Observer Research Foundation in collaboration with India’s Ministry of External Affairs.
The event, inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on March 17, featured New Zealand’s Prime Minister Christopher Luxon as the chief guest and keynote speaker.
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